100 million people can't be wrong

One of the arguments to support the use of SCAM is that there woudn't be so many people using it if it didn't work.

This is known as the "argumentum ad populum" fallacy. With the Christmas season just having passed, I was thinking of an example to show how this type of thinking can lead people to the wrong conclusion.

This has been done in a bit of a hurry, so the figures are estimates only and may not be totally accurate. The figures used are designed to show the theory and expose the fallacy that are important.

The population of the world is approx 6.4 Billion. Of this population I believe it would be conservative to estimate that 20% celebrate Christmas as a holiday for giving gifts. This is about 1.3 Billion people. Based on average life expactancy around 70 to 80, the number in this group that would be aged between 3 and 10 would around 8% of the population.

From these assumptions, we have around 100 million children who believe in Santa. If we accept the argument by those who say that alternative medicine must work, otherwise there would not be so many people who use and believe in it, then it is just as valid to say that Santa is real because there are around 100 million people who believe in him.

If you are after an example with adults, simply look at religion. We have conflicting beliefs between Christians, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhist, Animalists, Athiests and other religions. Each group has millions of followers. It doesn't really matter which one you believe, the truth of any one means that there are millions who are wrong.

"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions. No one is entitled to their own facts." - James Schlesinger

"The presence of belief, does not indicate the existence of truth."
"There is only one truth. How we interpret that truth is called belief."

Sixth Sense for Tsumani Animals

The world has been rocked by the huge number of human dead, injured and missing and the massive devastation of the Indian Ocean Tsunami.

In the midst of all this carnage, there was a report that stated no elephants and other wild animals had been reported. This lead the reporter to trot out the line that animals have a sixth sense, could feel the Tsunami coming and left the beaches to escape from the danger they knew was coming.

As someone who lived in one of the effected countries for a couple of years, I can't seem to recall seeing elephants frolicking on the beaches and in the tourist resorts when I was there. Could we also say that Kangaroos, Polar Bears and Penguins also have this sixth sense? There are no reports of them being dead.

When Cyclone Tracey hit Australia's Northern Capital, Darwin in 1974 there were no dead giraffes, lions or bears, so maybe they also have this sixth sense.

Actually, now that I think of it, we humans also have this same sixth sense. Back in 1994, when the Shoemaker-Levy Comet 9 slammed into Jupiter, us humans managed to avoid the place and not a single death was recorded.

Back in the land of reality, authorities are dealing with a death toll in excess of 100,000 and likely to grow significantly higher. There is a concerted effort to bring medical attention to the injured, to provide clean water & food and to prevent diseases from taking even more lives. This leads to the following questions:

Who says there are no dead animals? I'm sure authorities are more concerned caring for the sick and injured people than looking for dead animals. As time goes by, I'm sure there will be reports of dead animals that were considered not important enough at the time when the focus was on the human toll.

Most of the attention has been in the well populated areas. These are also the areas where the amount of wildlife is small. As I said before, how many elephants do you see frolicking on the resort beaches or city streets?

The number of missing people is enormous. Many were swept out into the ocean and the bodies will never be recovered. Could not the same have occurred with the animals?

If you were starving with no food supply, would you help yourself to some meat from a dead animal? Hunger makes great seasoning.

This type of reporting is sloppy journalism and shows that people will believe something without stopping to think logically about the belief they have formed. Can animals sense impending danger from natural disasters? While the belief has been around for centuries, there is little evidence to support it.

"There is only one truth. How we interpret that truth is called belief."
"The presence of belief, does not indicate the existence of truth."