100 million people can't be wrong
One of the arguments to support the use of SCAM is that there woudn't be so many people using it if it didn't work.
This is known as the "argumentum ad populum" fallacy. With the Christmas season just having passed, I was thinking of an example to show how this type of thinking can lead people to the wrong conclusion.
This has been done in a bit of a hurry, so the figures are estimates only and may not be totally accurate. The figures used are designed to show the theory and expose the fallacy that are important.
The population of the world is approx 6.4 Billion. Of this population I believe it would be conservative to estimate that 20% celebrate Christmas as a holiday for giving gifts. This is about 1.3 Billion people. Based on average life expactancy around 70 to 80, the number in this group that would be aged between 3 and 10 would around 8% of the population.
From these assumptions, we have around 100 million children who believe in Santa. If we accept the argument by those who say that alternative medicine must work, otherwise there would not be so many people who use and believe in it, then it is just as valid to say that Santa is real because there are around 100 million people who believe in him.
If you are after an example with adults, simply look at religion. We have conflicting beliefs between Christians, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhist, Animalists, Athiests and other religions. Each group has millions of followers. It doesn't really matter which one you believe, the truth of any one means that there are millions who are wrong.
"Everyone is entitled to their own opinions. No one is entitled to their own facts." - James Schlesinger
"The presence of belief, does not indicate the existence of truth."
"There is only one truth. How we interpret that truth is called belief."
posted by Kevin Paine @ 8:46 AM
4 comments
4 Comments:
Great blog however your last example of religions saying that "the truth of any one means that there are millions who are wrong" is fundamentally wrong according to Islam which says that islam is the continuity of christianity and judaism and that since Jews and Christians share the same God with muslim, then they are muslims and that the main difference between them is that muslims believe in the message of muhammed while christians and jews do not. An the Quran does not say in any way that christianity and judaism is wrong. It is rather humans who interpret it the way they like.
This was not a propaganda. I just wrote representing my beliefs.
But i agree otherwise that 1+1 cannot equal 3
regards
Thank you for your clarification.
Perhaps that was not quiet the best example. However, even combining Muslims, Jews and Christians together, there are still enough Athiests, Animists, Hindus, Buddhists etc to illustrate the point.
Good work.
Love your blogs(s)
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